Prediction Market Philosophers Got What They Wanted. Getting the future right is now big business. But at a festival in the Bay Area, forecasters worry that sports markets could take the whole industry down. On June 11, Kalshi released a buzzy ad featuring noted New York Knicks fan Timothée Chalamet. It was a zeitgeist-capturing moment for prediction markets, akin to the 2022 Super Bowl, when seemingly every commercial featured a celebrity shilling crypto.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, and so is a fight among regulators, lawmakers, and advocates over their legality. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who currently serves as an advisor to the American Gaming Association, has criticized prediction markets. The political fight in the US over the future of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has escalated into a full-blown war, and battle lines aren't being neatly drawn along party lines. Instead, conservative Mormons have aligned themselves with Las Vegas bigwigs and MAGA royalty is siding with liberal Democrat lobbyists. One side argues that the platforms are breaking the law by operating as shadow casinos.